Anaheim Ducks at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals2
- Pavel MintyukovAssists2
- Mason McTavishPoints3
Penguins- Erik KarlssonGoals1
- Erik KarlssonAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:47Mason McTavish Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (4)4–3
- P33:01Mason McTavish Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (9), Pavel Mintyukov (5)3–3
- P31:25Radim Zohorna Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Drew O'Connor (2), Lars Eller (3)2–3
- P219:25Evgeni Malkin Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (4), Sidney Crosby (5)2–2
- P211:51Frank Vatrano Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (3), Mason McTavish (6)2–1
- P18:28Jakob Silfverberg Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Max Jones (2), Pavel Mintyukov (4)1–1
- P12:55Erik Karlsson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (6), Reilly Smith (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:51Frank Vatrano Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (3), Mason McTavish (6)ANA 2 – 1 PIT · ANA 47% → 67% +21ANA 47% → 67%+21 pts
- P219:25Evgeni Malkin Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (4), Sidney Crosby (5)ANA 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 29% → 53% +24PIT 29% → 53%+24 pts
- P31:25Radim Zohorna Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Drew O'Connor (2), Lars Eller (3)ANA 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 53% → 76% +24PIT 53% → 76%+24 pts
- P33:01Mason McTavish Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (9), Pavel Mintyukov (5)ANA 3 – 3 PIT · ANA 23% → 47% +25ANA 23% → 47%+25 pts
- P319:47Mason McTavish Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (4)ANA 4 – 3 PIT · ANA 50% → >99% +50ANA 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Fair odds
- PIT -121
- ANA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −3 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +24 Elo | PIT 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 31 |
| 25th of 3146.6% | Shot share | 54.9%2nd of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 90.4%21st of 31 |
| 6th of 313–1 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.