Los Angeles Kings at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals1
- Quinton ByfieldAssists3
- Quinton ByfieldPoints3
FlyersScoring summary
- P36:32Blake Lizotte Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (1)5–0
- P219:44Trevor Moore Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Arthur Kaliyev (4)4–0
- P216:01Arthur Kaliyev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (8), Trevor Moore (5)3–0
- P114:50Anze Kopitar Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (4), Quinton Byfield (7)2–0
- P114:32Adrian Kempe Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Quinton Byfield (6), Vladislav Gavrikov (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:32Adrian Kempe Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Quinton Byfield (6), Vladislav Gavrikov (2)LA 1 – 0 PHI · LA 50% → 66% +16LA 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P114:50Anze Kopitar Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (4), Quinton Byfield (7)LA 2 – 0 PHI · LA 66% → 80% +14LA 66% → 80%+14 pts
- P216:01Arthur Kaliyev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (8), Trevor Moore (5)LA 3 – 0 PHI · LA 87% → 96% +8LA 87% → 96%+8 pts
- P219:44Trevor Moore Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Arthur Kaliyev (4)LA 4 – 0 PHI · LA 97% → >99% +2LA 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P36:32Blake Lizotte Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (1)LA 5 – 0 PHI · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 49%
- Fair odds
- PHI -102
- LA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.1 – 3.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −1 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Cal Petersen (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LA +7 Elo | LA 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.9 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.6% | Shot share | 54.9%3rd of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 88.5%28th of 31 |
| 1st of 314–0 | Road vs home | 3–315th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.