Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Andreas EnglundGoals1
- Quinton ByfieldAssists2
- Quinton ByfieldPoints2
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- William NylanderAssists1
- John TavaresPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:13Adrian Kempe Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (5), Quinton Byfield (4)4–1
- P38:25John Tavares Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (6), William Nylander (7)3–1
- P29:46Arthur Kaliyev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (11), Quinton Byfield (3)3–0
- P111:40Phillip Danault Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (3), Jordan Spence (3)2–0
- P16:38Andreas Englund Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:38Andreas Englund Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (3)LA 1 – 0 TOR · LA 44% → 60% +15LA 44% → 60%+15 pts
- P111:40Phillip Danault Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (3), Jordan Spence (3)LA 2 – 0 TOR · LA 61% → 75% +14LA 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P29:46Arthur Kaliyev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (11), Quinton Byfield (3)LA 3 – 0 TOR · LA 82% → 92% +10LA 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P38:25John Tavares Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (6), William Nylander (7)LA 3 – 1 TOR · TOR <1% → 6% +5TOR <1% → 6%+5 pts
- P312:13Adrian Kempe Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (5), Quinton Byfield (4)LA 4 – 1 TOR · LA 98% → >99% +2LA 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Fair odds
- TOR -127
- LA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +18 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.44 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +69 Elo | TOR 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 314.0 | Goals scored | 3.68th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.68th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.6% | Shot share | 53.3%9th of 31 |
| 28th of 3188.2% | Save percentage | 90.6%19th of 31 |
| 1st of 312–0 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.