Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Morgan RiellyGoals1
- Morgan RiellyAssists1
- Morgan RiellyPoints2
Stars- Mason MarchmentGoals1
- Ryan SuterAssists1
- Mason MarchmentPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:49John Tavares Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none4–1
- P35:08Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (5), Matthew Knies (2)3–1
- P218:07Mitchell Marner Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (2), Calle Jarnkrok (2)2–1
- P211:17Mason Marchment Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (2), Ryan Suter (2)1–1
- P19:49Morgan Rielly Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:49Morgan Rielly Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (6)TOR 1 – 0 DAL · TOR 46% → 62% +16TOR 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P211:17Mason Marchment Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (2), Ryan Suter (2)TOR 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 33% → 53% +20DAL 33% → 53%+20 pts
- P218:07Mitchell Marner Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (2), Calle Jarnkrok (2)TOR 2 – 1 DAL · TOR 47% → 70% +23TOR 47% → 70%+23 pts
- P35:08Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (5), Matthew Knies (2)TOR 3 – 1 DAL · TOR 75% → 92% +17TOR 75% → 92%+17 pts
- P319:49John Tavares Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneTOR 4 – 1 DAL · TOR 100% → 100% +0TOR 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 53%
- Fair odds
- DAL -120
- TOR +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −8 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +22 Elo | DAL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.23rd of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +1.06th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.8% | Shot share | 46.3%23rd of 31 |
| 20th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 94.0%3rd of 31 |
| 7th of 312–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.