Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Mark GiordanoGoals1
- David KampfAssists1
- Mark GiordanoPoints1
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals2
- Luke EvangelistaAssists2
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:13Roman Josi Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (4), Tommy Novak (2)2–3
- P215:08Ryan O'Reilly Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Filip Forsberg (6), Luke Evangelista (3)2–2
- P212:46Mark Giordano Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Kampf (2)2–1
- P115:05Ryan O'Reilly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (4), Filip Forsberg (5)1–1
- P113:32William Nylander Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (3), Mitchell Marner (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:32William Nylander Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (3), Mitchell Marner (5)TOR 1 – 0 NSH · TOR 46% → 62% +16TOR 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P115:05Ryan O'Reilly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (4), Filip Forsberg (5)TOR 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 38% → 54% +17NSH 38% → 54%+17 pts
- P212:46Mark Giordano Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Kampf (2)TOR 2 – 1 NSH · TOR 47% → 68% +21TOR 47% → 68%+21 pts
- P215:08Ryan O'Reilly Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Filip Forsberg (6), Luke Evangelista (3)TOR 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 31% → 53% +22NSH 31% → 53%+22 pts
- OT2:13Roman Josi Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (4), Tommy Novak (2)TOR 2 – 3 NSH · NSH 51% → 96% +45NSH 51% → 96%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 55%
- Fair odds
- NSH -123
- TOR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +7 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +38 Elo | NSH 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.9 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.9 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 11th of 3152.5% | Shot share | 53.6%6th of 31 |
| 14th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 90.8%17th of 31 |
| 7th of 313–1 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.