Vegas Golden Knights at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- William CarrierGoals1
- Shea TheodoreAssists1
- Mark StonePoints1
Kings- Drew DoughtyGoals1
- Kevin FialaAssists1
- Trevor LewisPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jack Eichel Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P318:57Drew Doughty Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (10), Adrian Kempe (6)3–3
- P36:26Mark Stone Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (2), Shea Theodore (7)3–2
- P212:57William Carrier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P27:36Michael Amadio Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (7)1–2
- P24:54Trevor Lewis Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Mikey Anderson (6), Blake Lizotte (3)0–2
- P113:11Alex Laferriere Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (2), Matt Roy (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:11Alex Laferriere Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (2), Matt Roy (3)VGK 0 – 1 LA · LA 57% → 73% +15LA 57% → 73%+15 pts
- P27:36Michael Amadio Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (7)VGK 1 – 2 LA · VGK 13% → 26% +13VGK 13% → 26%+13 pts
- P212:57William Carrier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneVGK 2 – 2 LA · VGK 25% → 44% +20VGK 25% → 44%+20 pts
- P36:26Mark Stone Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (2), Shea Theodore (7)VGK 3 – 2 LA · VGK 46% → 75% +29VGK 46% → 75%+29 pts
- P318:57Drew Doughty Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (10), Adrian Kempe (6)VGK 3 – 3 LA · LA <1% → 51% +51LA <1% → 51%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 55%
- Fair odds
- LA -140
- VGK +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −3 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +35 Elo | LA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.9 | Goals scored | 4.22nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.1 | Goals allowed | 3.826th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.8 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 14th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 52.7%9th of 31 |
| 5th of 3192.3% | Save percentage | 87.8%28th of 31 |
| 1st of 313–0 | Road vs home | 0–327th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.