Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Wyatt KaiserAssists1
- Ryan DonatoPoints1
Golden Knights- William KarlssonGoals1
- William KarlssonAssists1
- William KarlssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:50Philipp Kurashev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–3
- P311:28Shea Theodore Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (6)3–3
- P31:11Taylor Raddysh Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P114:39Connor Bedard Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (3), Alex Vlasic (3)2–2
- P113:20Ryan Donato Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (4), Wyatt Kaiser (1)1–2
- P13:52William Karlsson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Shea Theodore (6), Brayden McNabb (5)0–2
- P11:35Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Michael Amadio (3), William Karlsson (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:35Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Michael Amadio (3), William Karlsson (6)CHI 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 56% → 70% +14VGK 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P114:39Connor Bedard Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (3), Alex Vlasic (3)CHI 2 – 2 VGK · CHI 29% → 44% +16CHI 29% → 44%+16 pts
- P31:11Taylor Raddysh Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneCHI 3 – 2 VGK · CHI 46% → 71% +25CHI 46% → 71%+25 pts
- P311:28Shea Theodore Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (6)CHI 3 – 3 VGK · VGK 18% → 52% +34VGK 18% → 52%+34 pts
- OT2:50Philipp Kurashev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 4 – 3 VGK · CHI 49% → 97% +48CHI 49% → 97%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 62%
- Fair odds
- VGK -129
- CHI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +14 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +83 Elo | VGK 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.0 | Goals scored | 4.04th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 1.93rd of 31 |
| 26th of 31−1.0 | Margin | +2.11st of 31 |
| 30th of 3141.9% | Shot share | 52.0%14th of 31 |
| 6th of 3192.1% | Save percentage | 93.4%3rd of 31 |
| 16th of 312–3 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 VGK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.