Los Angeles Kings at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists2
- Adrian KempePoints2
Senators- Josh NorrisGoals1
- Jakob ChychrunAssists1
- Dominik KubalikPoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:09Josh Norris Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (1), Vladimir Tarasenko (7)3–2
- P219:39Dominik Kubalik Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (8), Jakob Chychrun (5)3–1
- P28:55Anze Kopitar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Andreas Englund (3), Adrian Kempe (8)3–0
- P25:00Carl Grundstrom Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (7)2–0
- P13:11Phillip Danault Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Trevor Moore (4), Quinton Byfield (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:11Phillip Danault Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Trevor Moore (4), Quinton Byfield (5)LA 1 – 0 OTT · LA 45% → 60% +15LA 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P25:00Carl Grundstrom Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (7)LA 2 – 0 OTT · LA 65% → 81% +16LA 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P28:55Anze Kopitar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Andreas Englund (3), Adrian Kempe (8)LA 3 – 0 OTT · LA 82% → 92% +10LA 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P219:39Dominik Kubalik Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (8), Jakob Chychrun (5)LA 3 – 1 OTT · OTT 4% → 12% +8OTT 4% → 12%+8 pts
- P34:09Josh Norris Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (1), Vladimir Tarasenko (7)LA 3 – 2 OTT · OTT 9% → 26% +17OTT 9% → 26%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 54%
- Fair odds
- OTT -121
- LA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −4 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +27 Elo | OTT 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 314.0 | Goals scored | 4.02nd of 31 |
| 24th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.87th of 31 |
| 10th of 3152.7% | Shot share | 53.6%5th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 89.5%22nd of 31 |
| 1st of 313–0 | Road vs home | 3–211th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.