Pittsburgh Penguins at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Erik KarlssonAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Kings- Carl GrundstromGoals1
- Jordan SpenceAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:45Bryan Rust Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Evgeni Malkin (7), Erik Karlsson (9)4–3
- P36:40Kevin Fiala Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (4), Jordan Spence (6)3–3
- P30:37Jake Guentzel Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (7), Erik Karlsson (8)3–2
- P218:03Lars Eller Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P29:58Adrian Kempe Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (7), Quinton Byfield (10)1–2
- P114:14Carl Grundstrom Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (7), Matt Roy (5)1–1
- P17:11Sidney Crosby Goal (7) Backhand, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:58Adrian Kempe Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (7), Quinton Byfield (10)PIT 1 – 2 LA · LA 50% → 70% +20LA 50% → 70%+20 pts
- P218:03Lars Eller Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: nonePIT 2 – 2 LA · PIT 27% → 50% +23PIT 27% → 50%+23 pts
- P30:37Jake Guentzel Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (7), Erik Karlsson (8)PIT 3 – 2 LA · PIT 50% → 74% +24PIT 50% → 74%+24 pts
- P36:40Kevin Fiala Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (4), Jordan Spence (6)PIT 3 – 3 LA · LA 22% → 50% +28LA 22% → 50%+28 pts
- OT3:45Bryan Rust Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Evgeni Malkin (7), Erik Karlsson (9)PIT 4 – 3 LA · PIT 50% → >99% +50PIT 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 50%
- Fair odds
- LA -102
- PIT +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −18 | PIT: Magnus Hellberg (no track record yet) · LA: Pheonix Copley: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +1 Elo | LA 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 4.02nd of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +1.34th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.6% | Shot share | 52.9%8th of 31 |
| 11th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 91.6%10th of 31 |
| 9th of 313–2 | Road vs home | 0–430th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.