Pittsburgh Penguins at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Kris LetangAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints1
DucksScoring summary
- P319:40Sidney Crosby Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jake Guentzel (10), Kris Letang (6)2–0
- P112:34Radim Zohorna Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Lars Eller (4), Erik Karlsson (7)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:34Radim Zohorna Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Lars Eller (4), Erik Karlsson (7)PIT 1 – 0 ANA · PIT 45% → 61% +16PIT 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P319:40Sidney Crosby Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jake Guentzel (10), Kris Letang (6)PIT 2 – 0 ANA · PIT >99% → 100% +0PIT >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 57%
- Fair odds
- ANA -125
- PIT +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +2 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +51 Elo | ANA 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.610th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.7% | Shot share | 45.1%28th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 91.4%9th of 31 |
| 11th of 312–2 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–1 ANA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.