Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals1
- Jack EichelAssists1
- Jack EichelPoints2
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals1
- Cam FowlerAssists2
- Cam FowlerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:51Sam Carrick Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (5), Cam Fowler (6)2–4
- P316:20Mason McTavish Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (3), Ilya Lyubushkin (1)2–3
- P310:55Sam Carrick Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (7)2–2
- P31:38Adam Henrique Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (5), Frank Vatrano (2)2–1
- P213:43Jack Eichel Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (9), Brayden McNabb (7)2–0
- P18:51Ivan Barbashev Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jack Eichel (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:51Ivan Barbashev Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jack Eichel (8)VGK 1 – 0 ANA · VGK 42% → 58% +16VGK 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P213:43Jack Eichel Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (9), Brayden McNabb (7)VGK 2 – 0 ANA · VGK 66% → 83% +17VGK 66% → 83%+17 pts
- P31:38Adam Henrique Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (5), Frank Vatrano (2)VGK 2 – 1 ANA · ANA 11% → 29% +18ANA 11% → 29%+18 pts
- P310:55Sam Carrick Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (7)VGK 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 20% → 53% +34ANA 20% → 53%+34 pts
- P316:20Mason McTavish Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (3), Ilya Lyubushkin (1)VGK 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 52% → 94% +42ANA 52% → 94%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 54%
- Fair odds
- ANA -140
- VGK +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −2 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +30 Elo | ANA 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 314.2 | Goals scored | 3.510th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.0 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+2.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.4% | Shot share | 45.5%28th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3193.5% | Save percentage | 91.2%10th of 31 |
| 1st of 314–0 | Road vs home | 1–224th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–0 ANA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.