Montreal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Rafael Harvey-PinardAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints1
Golden Knights- William CarrierGoals1
- Chandler StephensonAssists1
- William CarrierPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Shea Theodore Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Jonathan Marchessault Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Nick Suzuki Goal Backhand1–2
- P315:42Nick Suzuki Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard (4), Cole Caufield (6)2–2
- P218:10William Carrier Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Chandler Stephenson (6), Jack Eichel (7)1–2
- P25:38Sean Monahan Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P115:06Paul Cotter Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (8), Alex Pietrangelo (2)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:06Paul Cotter Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (8), Alex Pietrangelo (2)MTL 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 71% +16VGK 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P25:38Sean Monahan Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 1 – 1 VGK · MTL 28% → 46% +18MTL 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P218:10William Carrier Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Chandler Stephenson (6), Jack Eichel (7)MTL 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 54% → 76% +22VGK 54% → 76%+22 pts
- P315:42Nick Suzuki Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard (4), Cole Caufield (6)MTL 2 – 2 VGK · MTL 8% → 48% +40MTL 8% → 48%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 59%
- Fair odds
- VGK -127
- MTL +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +6 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +67 Elo | VGK 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.95th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.23rd of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +1.72nd of 31 |
| 28th of 3144.1% | Shot share | 50.3%16th of 31 |
| 11th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 92.3%4th of 31 |
| 12th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 4–14th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.