Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Adam LowryGoals2
- Mason AppletonAssists2
- Adam LowryPoints2
Canadiens- Justin BarronGoals1
- Kaiden GuhleAssists2
- Kaiden GuhlePoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Nick Suzuki Goal Backhand0–1
- P31:54Joel Armia Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (3)3–3
- P28:23Sean Monahan Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nick Suzuki (6), Mike Matheson (4)3–2
- P20:33Nino Niederreiter Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Mason Appleton (4)3–1
- P20:15Adam Lowry Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: Nino Niederreiter (4), Mason Appleton (3)2–1
- P15:05Justin Barron Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard (3), Kaiden Guhle (2)1–1
- P14:28Adam Lowry Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:05Justin Barron Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard (3), Kaiden Guhle (2)WPG 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 40% → 55% +15MTL 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P20:15Adam Lowry Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: Nino Niederreiter (4), Mason Appleton (3)WPG 2 – 1 MTL · WPG 46% → 63% +18WPG 46% → 63%+18 pts
- P20:33Nino Niederreiter Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Mason Appleton (4)WPG 3 – 1 MTL · WPG 64% → 79% +15WPG 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P28:23Sean Monahan Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nick Suzuki (6), Mike Matheson (4)WPG 3 – 2 MTL · MTL 18% → 34% +16MTL 18% → 34%+16 pts
- P31:54Joel Armia Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (3)WPG 3 – 3 MTL · MTL 28% → 53% +25MTL 28% → 53%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 56%
- Fair odds
- MTL -123
- WPG +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +3 | WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +39 Elo | MTL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.419th of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.320th of 31 |
| 14th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 44.9%27th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 91.1%13th of 31 |
| 9th of 312–1 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.