Winnipeg Jets at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nino NiederreiterGoals1
- Nino NiederreiterAssists1
- Nino NiederreiterPoints2
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals1
- Dylan LarkinAssists1
- Lucas RaymondPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:58Nino Niederreiter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (2)4–1
- P310:26Mason Appleton Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Adam Lowry (4), Nino Niederreiter (3)3–1
- P23:18Lucas Raymond Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Dylan Larkin (11), Moritz Seider (7)2–1
- P117:30Kyle Connor Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (6)2–0
- P116:28Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (3), Dylan Samberg (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:28Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (3), Dylan Samberg (2)WPG 1 – 0 DET · WPG 45% → 62% +17WPG 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P117:30Kyle Connor Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (6)WPG 2 – 0 DET · WPG 62% → 77% +15WPG 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P23:18Lucas Raymond Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Dylan Larkin (11), Moritz Seider (7)WPG 2 – 1 DET · DET 21% → 37% +16DET 21% → 37%+16 pts
- P310:26Mason Appleton Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Adam Lowry (4), Nino Niederreiter (3)WPG 3 – 1 DET · WPG 80% → 96% +16WPG 80% → 96%+16 pts
- P318:58Nino Niederreiter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (2)WPG 4 – 1 DET · WPG >99% → 100% +0WPG >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 61%
- Fair odds
- DET -129
- WPG +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +21 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.52 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +81 Elo | DET 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 4.91st of 31 |
| 25th of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.5 | Margin | +2.04th of 31 |
| 10th of 3153.3% | Shot share | 50.0%20th of 31 |
| 27th of 3187.6% | Save percentage | 91.1%11th of 31 |
| 12th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 3–19th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.