St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals1
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists1
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints2
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals1
- Neal PionkAssists2
- Neal PionkPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:50Morgan Barron Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (3), Neal Pionk (3)2–4
- P316:37Robert Thomas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (1)2–3
- P34:10Kyle Connor Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (1)1–3
- P218:25Pavel Buchnevich Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Schenn (1), Jordan Kyrou (2)1–2
- P23:13Mason Appleton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (3), Neal Pionk (2)0–2
- P22:55David Gustafsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (2), Dylan DeMelo (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:55David Gustafsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (2), Dylan DeMelo (4)STL 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 53% → 71% +18WPG 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P23:13Mason Appleton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (3), Neal Pionk (2)STL 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 71% → 84% +14WPG 71% → 84%+14 pts
- P218:25Pavel Buchnevich Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Schenn (1), Jordan Kyrou (2)STL 1 – 2 WPG · STL 10% → 25% +15STL 10% → 25%+15 pts
- P34:10Kyle Connor Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (1)STL 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 78% → 93% +15WPG 78% → 93%+15 pts
- P316:37Robert Thomas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (1)STL 2 – 3 WPG · STL <1% → 6% +6STL <1% → 6%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 50%
- Fair odds
- WPG -117
- STL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +16 | −11 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.40 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +1 Elo | STL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.3 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 2nd of 311.7 | Goals allowed | 4.228th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −1.025th of 31 |
| 30th of 3141.7% | Shot share | 52.2%12th of 31 |
| 1st of 3195.9% | Save percentage | 87.2%28th of 31 |
| 26th of 310–1 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.