Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Josh MorrisseyGoals1
- Josh MorrisseyAssists1
- Josh MorrisseyPoints2
Oilers- Darnell NurseGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:53Mark Scheifele Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (5), Kyle Connor (2)3–2
- P218:21Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (1)2–2
- P110:18Josh Morrissey Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (3), Morgan Barron (1)1–2
- P16:11Evan Bouchard Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (5), Connor McDavid (6)0–2
- P11:25Darnell Nurse Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (5), Leon Draisaitl (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:25Darnell Nurse Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (5), Leon Draisaitl (4)WPG 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 56% → 70% +14EDM 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P16:11Evan Bouchard Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (5), Connor McDavid (6)WPG 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 70% → 82% +12EDM 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P110:18Josh Morrissey Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (3), Morgan Barron (1)WPG 1 – 2 EDM · WPG 18% → 30% +12WPG 18% → 30%+12 pts
- P218:21Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (1)WPG 2 – 2 EDM · WPG 24% → 47% +22WPG 24% → 47%+22 pts
- OT3:53Mark Scheifele Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (5), Kyle Connor (2)WPG 3 – 2 EDM · WPG 49% → >99% +50WPG 49% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 58%
- Fair odds
- EDM -126
- WPG +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −19 | −2 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.49 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +58 Elo | EDM 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 31 |
| 30th of 314.8 | Goals allowed | 4.329th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−1.5 | Margin | −1.528th of 31 |
| 4th of 3155.4% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 31 |
| 30th of 3184.4% | Save percentage | 86.3%29th of 31 |
| 21st of 310–1 | Road vs home | 0–127th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.