Columbus Blue Jackets at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Johnny GaudreauAssists1
- Johnny GaudreauPoints1
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:17Cole Caufield Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (5), Jordan Harris (1)3–4
- P37:48Sean Monahan Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cole Caufield (5), Mike Matheson (3)3–3
- P219:43Mike Matheson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (4), Cole Caufield (4)3–2
- P213:34Emil Bemstrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (4), Dmitri Voronkov (1)3–1
- P20:27Nick Suzuki Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P117:21Emil Bemstrom Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (6), Jack Roslovic (3)2–0
- P12:46Jack Roslovic Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (4), Zach Werenski (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:27Nick Suzuki Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 2 – 1 MTL · MTL 21% → 36% +15MTL 21% → 36%+15 pts
- P213:34Emil Bemstrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (4), Dmitri Voronkov (1)CBJ 3 – 1 MTL · CBJ 68% → 84% +17CBJ 68% → 84%+17 pts
- P219:43Mike Matheson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (4), Cole Caufield (4)CBJ 3 – 2 MTL · MTL 12% → 29% +17MTL 12% → 29%+17 pts
- P37:48Sean Monahan Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cole Caufield (5), Mike Matheson (3)CBJ 3 – 3 MTL · MTL 23% → 52% +30MTL 23% → 52%+30 pts
- OT4:17Cole Caufield Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (5), Jordan Harris (1)CBJ 3 – 4 MTL · MTL 51% → >99% +49MTL 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 55%
- Fair odds
- MTL -123
- CBJ +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.3 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −3 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +37 Elo | MTL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.519th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.521st of 31 |
| 18th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 44.9%25th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 91.0%13th of 31 |
| 1st of 311–0 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.