Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals2
- Mark StoneAssists2
- Mark StonePoints4
Scoring summary
- P314:43William Karlsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (4), Michael Amadio (4)0–7
- P39:13William Karlsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (3)0–6
- P33:22Mark Stone Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–5
- P213:49Jack Eichel Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (8), Shea Theodore (8)0–4
- P212:57William Carrier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (7), Chandler Stephenson (8)0–3
- P29:35Jack Eichel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (3), Alex Pietrangelo (5)0–2
- P116:50Mark Stone Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (6), Chandler Stephenson (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:50Mark Stone Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (6), Chandler Stephenson (7)COL 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 71% +16VGK 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P29:35Jack Eichel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (3), Alex Pietrangelo (5)COL 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 73% → 87% +14VGK 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P212:57William Carrier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (7), Chandler Stephenson (8)COL 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 88% → 96% +8VGK 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P213:49Jack Eichel Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (8), Shea Theodore (8)COL 0 – 4 VGK · VGK 96% → 99% +3VGK 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P33:22Mark Stone Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCOL 0 – 5 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 58%
- Fair odds
- VGK -125
- COL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +7 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +54 Elo | VGK 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.94th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 2.22nd of 31 |
| 4th of 31+1.2 | Margin | +1.72nd of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.2% | Shot share | 48.8%21st of 31 |
| 7th of 3192.2% | Save percentage | 92.7%5th of 31 |
| 8th of 314–2 | Road vs home | 6–14th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.