St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Nick LeddyAssists1
- Robert ThomasPoints1
Avalanche- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Mikko RantanenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P37:59Bowen Byram Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (5)1–4
- P31:41Artturi Lehkonen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (8), Mikko Rantanen (8)1–3
- P217:49Robert Thomas Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (3), Nick Leddy (1)1–2
- P113:19Mikko Rantanen Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (7), Nathan MacKinnon (4)0–2
- P18:53Ross Colton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Miles Wood (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:53Ross Colton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Miles Wood (1)STL 0 – 1 COL · COL 55% → 70% +15COL 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P113:19Mikko Rantanen Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (7), Nathan MacKinnon (4)STL 0 – 2 COL · COL 70% → 83% +13COL 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P217:49Robert Thomas Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (3), Nick Leddy (1)STL 1 – 2 COL · STL 10% → 25% +15STL 10% → 25%+15 pts
- P31:41Artturi Lehkonen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (8), Mikko Rantanen (8)STL 1 – 3 COL · COL 77% → 92% +15COL 77% → 92%+15 pts
- P37:59Bowen Byram Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (5)STL 1 – 4 COL · COL 95% → >99% +4COL 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 56%
- Fair odds
- COL -123
- STL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −10 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · COL: Ivan Prosvetov (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | COL +39 Elo | COL 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.0 | Goals scored | 3.510th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 2.56th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.3 | Margin | +1.05th of 31 |
| 29th of 3143.6% | Shot share | 54.6%4th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3193.7% | Save percentage | 91.7%9th of 31 |
| 23rd of 311–3 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.