St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues
Canucks- Quinn HughesGoals2
- J.T. MillerAssists2
- J.T. MillerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P36:35Ilya Mikheyev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (10), Andrei Kuzmenko (4)0–5
- P28:52J.T. Miller Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Elias Pettersson (9)0–4
- P26:58Phillip Di Giuseppe Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (2), J.T. Miller (8)0–3
- P25:48Quinn Hughes Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Brock Boeser (3), J.T. Miller (7)0–2
- P17:59Quinn Hughes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:59Quinn Hughes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (5)STL 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 59% → 73% +14VAN 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P25:48Quinn Hughes Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Brock Boeser (3), J.T. Miller (7)STL 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 75% → 87% +13VAN 75% → 87%+13 pts
- P26:58Phillip Di Giuseppe Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (2), J.T. Miller (8)STL 0 – 3 VAN · VAN 88% → 95% +7VAN 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P28:52J.T. Miller Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Elias Pettersson (9)STL 0 – 4 VAN · VAN 95% → 99% +3VAN 95% → 99%+3 pts
- P36:35Ilya Mikheyev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (10), Andrei Kuzmenko (4)STL 0 – 5 VAN · VAN >99% → >99% +0VAN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 60%
- Fair odds
- VAN -146
- STL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.8 – 3.4 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +9 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +70 Elo | VAN 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.4 | Goals scored | 3.88th of 31 |
| 2nd of 311.8 | Goals allowed | 2.56th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +1.35th of 31 |
| 27th of 3144.6% | Shot share | 44.3%29th of 31 |
| 1st of 3195.5% | Save percentage | 92.5%4th of 31 |
| 16th of 311–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.