Vancouver Canucks at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Elias PetterssonGoals1
- J.T. MillerAssists2
- Elias PetterssonPoints2
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals2
- Evan RodriguesAssists2
- Sam ReinhartPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:50Brock Boeser Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–3
- P315:03Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Di Giuseppe (2), J.T. Miller (6)4–3
- P314:01Sam Reinhart Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (5), Josh Mahura (2)3–3
- P36:10Sam Reinhart Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Evan Rodrigues (4), Aleksander Barkov (5)3–2
- P211:15Elias Pettersson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (2), Ilya Mikheyev (1)3–1
- P210:41Carson Soucy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (1)2–1
- P111:29Aleksander Barkov Goal (1) , assists: none1–1
- P111:09Quinn Hughes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (5), Elias Pettersson (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:41Carson Soucy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (1)VAN 2 – 1 FLA · VAN 46% → 67% +20VAN 46% → 67%+20 pts
- P211:15Elias Pettersson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (2), Ilya Mikheyev (1)VAN 3 – 1 FLA · VAN 67% → 83% +16VAN 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P36:10Sam Reinhart Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Evan Rodrigues (4), Aleksander Barkov (5)VAN 3 – 2 FLA · FLA 7% → 24% +17FLA 7% → 24%+17 pts
- P314:01Sam Reinhart Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (5), Josh Mahura (2)VAN 3 – 3 FLA · FLA 13% → 52% +38FLA 13% → 52%+38 pts
- P315:03Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Di Giuseppe (2), J.T. Miller (6)VAN 4 – 3 FLA · VAN 49% → 89% +41VAN 49% → 89%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 55%
- Fair odds
- FLA -123
- VAN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +2 | VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +36 Elo | FLA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.8 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 31 |
| 7th of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+1.3 | Margin | −0.315th of 31 |
| 29th of 3141.5% | Shot share | 51.6%14th of 31 |
| 7th of 3193.1% | Save percentage | 90.8%14th of 31 |
| 14th of 281–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.