St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Oskar SundqvistGoals1
- Oskar SundqvistAssists1
- Oskar SundqvistPoints2
FlamesScoring summary
- P317:53Oskar Sundqvist Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (4)3–0
- P113:24Nick Leddy Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Hayes (2), Alexey Toropchenko (2)2–0
- P111:23Kasperi Kapanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (2)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:23Kasperi Kapanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (2)STL 1 – 0 CGY · STL 46% → 62% +16STL 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P113:24Nick Leddy Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Hayes (2), Alexey Toropchenko (2)STL 2 – 0 CGY · STL 62% → 77% +14STL 62% → 77%+14 pts
- P317:53Oskar Sundqvist Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (4)STL 3 – 0 CGY · STL >99% → >99% +0STL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 53%
- Fair odds
- CGY -121
- STL +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −4 | STL: Joel Hofer (no track record yet) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +23 Elo | CGY 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.3 | Goals scored | 2.426th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 3.723rd of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | −1.328th of 31 |
| 30th of 3141.3% | Shot share | 54.0%5th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3194.5% | Save percentage | 88.1%26th of 31 |
| 27th of 310–2 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.