New York Rangers at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Chris KreiderGoals1
- Filip ChytilAssists2
- Filip ChytilPoints2
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints1
Scoring summary
- P216:53Erik Gustafsson Goal (2) Poke, assists: Filip Chytil (6), K'Andre Miller (4)3–1
- P214:09Chris Kreider Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (5), Adam Fox (5)2–1
- P27:38Alexis Lafrenière Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Erik Gustafsson (2), Filip Chytil (5)1–1
- P11:15Blake Coleman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (3), Andrew Mangiapane (3)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:15Blake Coleman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (3), Andrew Mangiapane (3)NYR 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 55% → 69% +14CGY 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P27:38Alexis Lafrenière Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Erik Gustafsson (2), Filip Chytil (5)NYR 1 – 1 CGY · NYR 28% → 47% +19NYR 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P214:09Chris Kreider Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (5), Adam Fox (5)NYR 2 – 1 CGY · NYR 47% → 68% +21NYR 47% → 68%+21 pts
- P216:53Erik Gustafsson Goal (2) Poke, assists: Filip Chytil (6), K'Andre Miller (4)NYR 3 – 1 CGY · NYR 70% → 86% +17NYR 70% → 86%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 54%
- Fair odds
- CGY -121
- NYR +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −6 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +25 Elo | CGY 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.825th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −1.226th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.8% | Shot share | 53.6%8th of 31 |
| 25th of 3188.0% | Save percentage | 88.4%24th of 31 |
| 7th of 312–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.