Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Alex IafalloGoals1
- Alex IafalloAssists1
- Alex IafalloPoints2
Golden Knights- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals3
- Alex PietrangeloAssists2
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:08Jonathan Marchessault Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–5
- P35:47Jonathan Marchessault Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (1), Alex Pietrangelo (4)2–4
- P31:51Alex Iafallo Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Cole Perfetti (6), Kyle Connor (3)2–3
- P28:38Ivan Barbashev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (3), William Karlsson (9)1–3
- P27:00Jonathan Marchessault Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (6), Logan Thompson (1)1–2
- P26:17Kyle Connor Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alex Iafallo (2), Mark Scheifele (5)1–1
- P110:45William Karlsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (2), Ben Hutton (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:45William Karlsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (2), Ben Hutton (2)WPG 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 70% +15VGK 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P26:17Kyle Connor Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alex Iafallo (2), Mark Scheifele (5)WPG 1 – 1 VGK · WPG 28% → 46% +18WPG 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P27:00Jonathan Marchessault Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (6), Logan Thompson (1)WPG 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 54% → 73% +18VGK 54% → 73%+18 pts
- P31:51Alex Iafallo Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Cole Perfetti (6), Kyle Connor (3)WPG 2 – 3 VGK · WPG 8% → 23% +15WPG 8% → 23%+15 pts
- P35:47Jonathan Marchessault Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (1), Alex Pietrangelo (4)WPG 2 – 4 VGK · VGK 79% → 94% +15VGK 79% → 94%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 59%
- Fair odds
- VGK -126
- WPG +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +3 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +62 Elo | VGK 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.84th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.23rd of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +1.63rd of 31 |
| 7th of 3153.3% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 92.6%4th of 31 |
| 12th of 312–2 | Road vs home | 5–14th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 0–1 VGK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.