New York Rangers at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists2
- Artemi PanarinPoints3
Jets- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Cole PerfettiAssists2
- Cole PerfettiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:34Mika Zibanejad Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (10), K'Andre Miller (6)3–2
- P313:12Chris Kreider Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (8), Artemi Panarin (9)2–2
- P35:08Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: Cole Perfetti (5), Mark Scheifele (4)1–2
- P119:32David Gustafsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (4)1–1
- P118:24Artemi Panarin Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (2), K'Andre Miller (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:24Artemi Panarin Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (2), K'Andre Miller (5)NYR 1 – 0 WPG · NYR 46% → 63% +17NYR 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P119:32David Gustafsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (4)NYR 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 36% → 54% +17WPG 36% → 54%+17 pts
- P35:08Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: Cole Perfetti (5), Mark Scheifele (4)NYR 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 52% → 79% +26WPG 52% → 79%+26 pts
- P313:12Chris Kreider Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (8), Artemi Panarin (9)NYR 2 – 2 WPG · NYR 13% → 48% +35NYR 13% → 48%+35 pts
- OT4:34Mika Zibanejad Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (10), K'Andre Miller (6)NYR 3 – 2 WPG · NYR 50% → >99% +50NYR 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 54%
- Fair odds
- WPG -121
- NYR +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +5 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +25 Elo | WPG 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.413th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.1 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+1.1 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 16th of 3151.0% | Shot share | 53.3%8th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 89.3%23rd of 31 |
| 5th of 315–1 | Road vs home | 2–218th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.