New York Rangers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists2
- Mika ZibanejadPoints3
Canucks- Tyler MyersGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists2
- Filip HronekPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:48K'Andre Miller Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (2)4–3
- P315:42Carson Soucy Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (7), Anthony Beauvillier (1)3–3
- P313:24Mika Zibanejad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (7)3–2
- P312:21Adam Fox Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (8), Mika Zibanejad (7)2–2
- P39:06Tyler Myers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P215:57J.T. Miller Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (6), Elias Pettersson (11)1–1
- P19:18Artemi Panarin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (3), Mika Zibanejad (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P39:06Tyler Myers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 50% → 81% +30VAN 50% → 81%+30 pts
- P312:21Adam Fox Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (8), Mika Zibanejad (7)NYR 2 – 2 VAN · NYR 15% → 50% +35NYR 15% → 50%+35 pts
- P313:24Mika Zibanejad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (7)NYR 3 – 2 VAN · NYR 50% → 86% +37NYR 50% → 86%+37 pts
- P315:42Carson Soucy Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (7), Anthony Beauvillier (1)NYR 3 – 3 VAN · VAN 9% → 50% +41VAN 9% → 50%+41 pts
- OT3:48K'Andre Miller Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (2)NYR 4 – 3 VAN · NYR 50% → >99% +50NYR 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 50%
- Fair odds
- VAN -102
- NYR +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.1 – 3.1 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −4 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +1 Elo | VAN 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 4.03rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.0 | Goals allowed | 2.14th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+1.2 | Margin | +1.91st of 31 |
| 8th of 3153.0% | Shot share | 46.6%24th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.8% | Save percentage | 93.2%3rd of 31 |
| 5th of 314–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.