New York Rangers at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Braden SchneiderGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists2
- Adam FoxPoints2
OilersScoring summary
- P218:09Alexis Lafrenière Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (7), Braden Schneider (1)3–0
- P212:03Braden Schneider Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Vesey (2), Adam Fox (6)2–0
- P23:32Adam Fox Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (2), Artemi Panarin (6)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:32Adam Fox Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (2), Artemi Panarin (6)NYR 1 – 0 EDM · NYR 47% → 65% +18NYR 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P212:03Braden Schneider Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Vesey (2), Adam Fox (6)NYR 2 – 0 EDM · NYR 68% → 84% +16NYR 68% → 84%+16 pts
- P218:09Alexis Lafrenière Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (7), Braden Schneider (1)NYR 3 – 0 EDM · NYR 87% → 96% +9NYR 87% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 51%
- Fair odds
- EDM -118
- NYR +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +1 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +7 Elo | EDM 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 31 |
| 5th of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 4.531st of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.8 | Margin | −1.729th of 31 |
| 8th of 3153.4% | Shot share | 50.7%18th of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 85.7%30th of 31 |
| 6th of 313–1 | Road vs home | 0–227th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.