Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Jordan SpenceAssists2
- Anze KopitarPoints2
Golden Knights- William KarlssonGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists1
- William KarlssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:48Anze Kopitar Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (9)4–1
- P314:33William Karlsson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (9), Alex Pietrangelo (6)3–1
- P32:42Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (9), Kevin Fiala (12)3–0
- P215:58Trevor Moore Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (5), Phillip Danault (5)2–0
- P211:30Adrian Kempe Goal (5) Batted, assists: Jordan Spence (4), Anze Kopitar (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:30Adrian Kempe Goal (5) Batted, assists: Jordan Spence (4), Anze Kopitar (6)LA 1 – 0 VGK · LA 46% → 67% +21LA 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P215:58Trevor Moore Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (5), Phillip Danault (5)LA 2 – 0 VGK · LA 69% → 86% +17LA 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P32:42Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (9), Kevin Fiala (12)LA 3 – 0 VGK · LA 90% → 98% +7LA 90% → 98%+7 pts
- P314:33William Karlsson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (9), Alex Pietrangelo (6)LA 3 – 1 VGK · VGK <1% → <1% +1VGK <1% → <1%+1 pts
- P319:48Anze Kopitar Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (9)LA 4 – 1 VGK · LA 100% → 100% +0LA 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 58%
- Fair odds
- VGK -125
- LA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +14 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +56 Elo | VGK 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 314.0 | Goals scored | 4.02nd of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.23rd of 31 |
| 4th of 31+1.1 | Margin | +1.82nd of 31 |
| 8th of 3153.8% | Shot share | 49.1%17th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 93.1%3rd of 31 |
| 1st of 315–0 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 0–1 VGK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.