Philadelphia Flyers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals2
- Travis SanheimAssists2
- Travis SanheimPoints3
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals3
- Alex KillornAssists2
- Leo CarlssonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:59Owen Tippett Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (12), Scott Laughton (8)6–3
- P318:32Leo Carlsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (6), Ryan Strome (10)5–3
- P313:07Owen Tippett Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (1)5–2
- P310:34Leo Carlsson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (2), Pavel Mintyukov (8)4–2
- P37:39Travis Sanheim Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Joel Farabee (6), Cam York (3)4–1
- P213:15Leo Carlsson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (1), Mason McTavish (8)3–1
- P22:33Louie Belpedio Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (5)3–0
- P112:31Cam Atkinson Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Travis Sanheim (11), Tyson Foerster (3)2–0
- P14:57Sean Couturier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Atkinson (4), Egor Zamula (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:57Sean Couturier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Atkinson (4), Egor Zamula (3)PHI 1 – 0 ANA · PHI 45% → 60% +15PHI 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P112:31Cam Atkinson Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Travis Sanheim (11), Tyson Foerster (3)PHI 2 – 0 ANA · PHI 61% → 76% +14PHI 61% → 76%+14 pts
- P22:33Louie Belpedio Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (5)PHI 3 – 0 ANA · PHI 79% → 90% +11PHI 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P213:15Leo Carlsson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (1), Mason McTavish (8)PHI 3 – 1 ANA · ANA 6% → 16% +10ANA 6% → 16%+10 pts
- P37:39Travis Sanheim Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Joel Farabee (6), Cam York (3)PHI 4 – 1 ANA · PHI 94% → >99% +5PHI 94% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 58%
- Fair odds
- ANA -126
- PHI +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +1 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +59 Elo | ANA 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.310th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.1% | Shot share | 45.3%28th of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.1% | Save percentage | 92.0%7th of 31 |
| 23rd of 312–4 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 ANA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.