St. Louis Blues at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals1
- Nick LeddyAssists1
- Jake NeighboursPoints1
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:06Jake Neighbours Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sammy Blais (4), Nick Leddy (3)1–5
- P219:36Kevin Fiala Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (7), Drew Doughty (4)0–5
- P115:20Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Arthur Kaliyev (5), Jordan Spence (7)0–4
- P113:37Adrian Kempe Goal (8) Backhand, assists: none0–3
- P12:44Blake Lizotte Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P12:25Quinton Byfield Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (8), Adrian Kempe (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:25Quinton Byfield Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (8), Adrian Kempe (10)STL 0 – 1 LA · LA 55% → 69% +14LA 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P12:44Blake Lizotte Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSTL 0 – 2 LA · LA 69% → 81% +12LA 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P113:37Adrian Kempe Goal (8) Backhand, assists: noneSTL 0 – 3 LA · LA 83% → 91% +8LA 83% → 91%+8 pts
- P115:20Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Arthur Kaliyev (5), Jordan Spence (7)STL 0 – 4 LA · LA 92% → 97% +5LA 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P219:36Kevin Fiala Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (7), Drew Doughty (4)STL 0 – 5 LA · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 58%
- Fair odds
- LA -125
- STL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +16 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.41 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +53 Elo | LA 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.85th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.4% | Shot share | 53.7%5th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3192.7% | Save percentage | 90.9%12th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 26th of 312–5 | Road vs home | 1–631st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.