Montreal Canadiens at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals1
- Brendan GallagherAssists1
- Brendan GallagherPoints2
Blues- Brayden SchennGoals1
- Brayden SchennAssists2
- Brayden SchennPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:32Nick Suzuki Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cole Caufield (7), Mike Matheson (5)3–6
- P316:00Kasperi Kapanen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (5)2–6
- P35:53Brayden Schenn Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (4), Brandon Saad (1)2–5
- P32:50Alexey Toropchenko Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (2)2–4
- P214:48Brendan Gallagher Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (4)2–3
- P213:03Brandon Saad Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (3), Brayden Schenn (3)1–3
- P116:37Robert Thomas Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (3)1–2
- P14:01Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (3), Brendan Gallagher (3)1–1
- P11:24Jordan Kyrou Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:01Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (3), Brendan Gallagher (3)MTL 1 – 1 STL · MTL 34% → 49% +15MTL 34% → 49%+15 pts
- P116:37Robert Thomas Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (3)MTL 1 – 2 STL · STL 51% → 68% +17STL 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P213:03Brandon Saad Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (3), Brayden Schenn (3)MTL 1 – 3 STL · STL 71% → 87% +15STL 71% → 87%+15 pts
- P214:48Brendan Gallagher Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (4)MTL 2 – 3 STL · MTL 13% → 28% +15MTL 13% → 28%+15 pts
- P32:50Alexey Toropchenko Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (2)MTL 2 – 4 STL · STL 76% → 92% +16STL 76% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Fair odds
- STL -105
- MTL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.1 – 3.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +14 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +21 Elo | STL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.129th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.46th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 31 |
| 25th of 3145.9% | Shot share | 45.5%29th of 31 |
| 12th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 93.2%2nd of 31 |
| 19th of 311–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.