New Jersey Devils at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Curtis LazarGoals1
- Alexander HoltzAssists1
- Curtis LazarPoints1
Blues- Kevin HayesGoals2
- Kevin HayesAssists1
- Kevin HayesPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:51Robert Thomas Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (2), Kevin Hayes (3)1–4
- P318:23Kevin Hayes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (1), Jordan Binnington (1)1–3
- P216:39Curtis Lazar Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alexander Holtz (2), John Marino (6)1–2
- P29:54Kevin Hayes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (2), Jakub Vrana (3)0–2
- P27:12Jake Neighbours Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sammy Blais (2), Oskar Sundqvist (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:12Jake Neighbours Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sammy Blais (2), Oskar Sundqvist (3)NJ 0 – 1 STL · STL 57% → 75% +18STL 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P29:54Kevin Hayes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (2), Jakub Vrana (3)NJ 0 – 2 STL · STL 75% → 88% +13STL 75% → 88%+13 pts
- P216:39Curtis Lazar Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alexander Holtz (2), John Marino (6)NJ 1 – 2 STL · NJ 9% → 23% +14NJ 9% → 23%+14 pts
- P318:23Kevin Hayes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (1), Jordan Binnington (1)NJ 1 – 3 STL · STL 99% → >99% +1STL 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P319:51Robert Thomas Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (2), Kevin Hayes (3)NJ 1 – 4 STL · STL 100% → 100% +0STL 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 59%
- Fair odds
- STL -145
- NJ +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.8 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −18 | −4 | NJ: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.46 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +65 Elo | STL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 314.4 | Goals scored | 1.930th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.67th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.8 | Margin | −0.724th of 31 |
| 10th of 3152.6% | Shot share | 44.5%29th of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.1% | Save percentage | 92.6%6th of 31 |
| 1st of 313–0 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.