Minnesota Wild at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Jake MiddletonGoals1
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists1
- Ryan HartmanPoints1
Devils- Jesper BrattGoals2
- Luke HughesAssists2
- Jesper BrattPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:17Jake Middleton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pat Maroon (6), Marcus Foligno (3)3–4
- P216:39Jesper Bratt Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (6), Luke Hughes (5)2–4
- P26:54Erik Haula Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: none2–3
- P26:10Tyler Toffoli Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Bratt (8), Luke Hughes (4)2–2
- P22:31Ryan Hartman Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Calen Addison (4), Joel Eriksson Ek (5)2–1
- P114:53Pat Maroon Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (3), Brock Faber (2)1–1
- P16:13Jesper Bratt Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: John Marino (5), Kevin Bahl (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:53Pat Maroon Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (3), Brock Faber (2)MIN 1 – 1 NJ · MIN 29% → 45% +16MIN 29% → 45%+16 pts
- P22:31Ryan Hartman Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Calen Addison (4), Joel Eriksson Ek (5)MIN 2 – 1 NJ · MIN 46% → 64% +18MIN 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P26:10Tyler Toffoli Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Bratt (8), Luke Hughes (4)MIN 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 35% → 54% +19NJ 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P26:54Erik Haula Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: noneMIN 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 54% → 72% +18NJ 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P216:39Jesper Bratt Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (6), Luke Hughes (5)MIN 2 – 4 NJ · NJ 75% → 90% +15NJ 75% → 90%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 58%
- Fair odds
- NJ -125
- MIN +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −3 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +53 Elo | NJ 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 4.31st of 31 |
| 30th of 314.3 | Goals allowed | 3.826th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.510th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.2% | Shot share | 52.3%12th of 31 |
| 25th of 3188.8% | Save percentage | 87.6%29th of 31 |
| 24th of 311–3 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.