New Jersey Devils at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jesper BrattGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists3
- Jesper BrattPoints4
Wild- Marco RossiGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists2
- Marco RossiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:22Dougie Hamilton Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (11), Jack Hughes (15)5–3
- P316:27Jake Middleton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (3), Marco Rossi (2)4–3
- P315:36Jesper Bratt Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (4), Luke Hughes (6)4–2
- P31:10Marco Rossi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (2), Jonas Brodin (4)3–2
- P29:03Kirill Kaprizov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Calen Addison (5), Mats Zuccarello (8)3–1
- P22:31Timo Meier Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Jack Hughes (14), Jesper Bratt (10)3–0
- P115:23Michael McLeod Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Ondrej Palat (3), Jesper Bratt (9)2–0
- P13:20Alexander Holtz Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan Bastian (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:20Alexander Holtz Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan Bastian (1)NJ 1 – 0 MIN · NJ 46% → 61% +15NJ 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P115:23Michael McLeod Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Ondrej Palat (3), Jesper Bratt (9)NJ 2 – 0 MIN · NJ 63% → 78% +14NJ 63% → 78%+14 pts
- P22:31Timo Meier Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Jack Hughes (14), Jesper Bratt (10)NJ 3 – 0 MIN · NJ 80% → 90% +10NJ 80% → 90%+10 pts
- P29:03Kirill Kaprizov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Calen Addison (5), Mats Zuccarello (8)NJ 3 – 1 MIN · MIN 7% → 17% +10MIN 7% → 17%+10 pts
- P31:10Marco Rossi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (2), Jonas Brodin (4)NJ 3 – 2 MIN · MIN 11% → 28% +17MIN 11% → 28%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Fair odds
- MIN -118
- NJ +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −21 | NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.52 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +1 Elo | MIN 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 314.3 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 4.231st of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.724th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 47.8%22nd of 31 |
| 28th of 3188.2% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 31 |
| 1st of 312–0 | Road vs home | 2–213th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.