Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals2
- Torey KrugAssists2
- Jordan KyrouPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:18Jordan Kyrou Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (5)0–5
- P316:02Kasperi Kapanen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (5)0–4
- P216:36Jakub Vrana Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Torey Krug (5), Kevin Hayes (4)0–3
- P216:17Jordan Kyrou Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Torey Krug (4), Justin Faulk (7)0–2
- P111:09Colton Parayko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (10), Pavel Buchnevich (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:09Colton Parayko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (10), Pavel Buchnevich (4)TB 0 – 1 STL · STL 55% → 70% +15STL 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P216:17Jordan Kyrou Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Torey Krug (4), Justin Faulk (7)TB 0 – 2 STL · STL 75% → 89% +15STL 75% → 89%+15 pts
- P216:36Jakub Vrana Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Torey Krug (5), Kevin Hayes (4)TB 0 – 3 STL · STL 90% → 97% +7STL 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P316:02Kasperi Kapanen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (5)TB 0 – 4 STL · STL >99% → >99% +0STL >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:18Jordan Kyrou Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (5)TB 0 – 5 STL · STL 100% → 100% +0STL 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 58%
- Fair odds
- STL -125
- TB +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −1 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +54 Elo | STL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.66th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.1% | Shot share | 46.2%29th of 31 |
| 20th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 92.7%4th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 26th of 312–5 | Road vs home | 4–15th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.