Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints4
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals2
- Mitch MarnerAssists3
- Mitch MarnerPoints4
Scoring summary
- OT0:46Calle Jarnkrok Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (8), William Nylander (10)5–6
- P317:34Brandon Hagel Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Calvin de Haan (2), Erik Cernak (2)5–5
- P32:03Mitchell Marner Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (4), Morgan Rielly (7)4–5
- P31:55Calle Jarnkrok Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (1), Max Domi (5)4–4
- P25:42Auston Matthews Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Matthew Knies (3), Mitchell Marner (12)4–3
- P22:22Auston Matthews Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: TJ Brodie (2), Mitchell Marner (11)4–2
- P115:13Brayden Point Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (11), Victor Hedman (11)4–1
- P111:27Nikita Kucherov Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (10), Steven Stamkos (8)3–1
- P16:11Nikita Kucherov Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (5), Mikhail Sergachev (6)2–1
- P14:17Victor Hedman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (10), Brayden Point (10)1–1
- P13:42Matthew Knies Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (10), Auston Matthews (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:42Auston Matthews Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Matthew Knies (3), Mitchell Marner (12)TB 4 – 3 TOR · TOR 19% → 35% +16TOR 19% → 35%+16 pts
- P31:55Calle Jarnkrok Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (1), Max Domi (5)TB 4 – 4 TOR · TOR 27% → 53% +25TOR 27% → 53%+25 pts
- P32:03Mitchell Marner Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (4), Morgan Rielly (7)TB 4 – 5 TOR · TOR 53% → 77% +24TOR 53% → 77%+24 pts
- P317:34Brandon Hagel Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Calvin de Haan (2), Erik Cernak (2)TB 5 – 5 TOR · TB 3% → 49% +46TB 3% → 49%+46 pts
- OT0:46Calle Jarnkrok Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (8), William Nylander (10)TB 5 – 6 TOR · TOR 51% → 92% +41TOR 51% → 92%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Fair odds
- TOR -120
- TB +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −7 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +19 Elo | TOR 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 24th of 3146.7% | Shot share | 51.3%13th of 31 |
| 10th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 90.3%19th of 31 |
| 15th of 274–6 | Last 10 | 4–615th of 27 |
| 28th of 311–4 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.