Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals1
- Auston MatthewsAssists1
- Auston MatthewsPoints2
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- Brad MarchandAssists1
- Pavel ZachaPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Charlie Coyle Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- SO0:00Jake DeBrusk Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P27:34Auston Matthews Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (3), William Lagesson (1)2–2
- P26:31Mitchell Marner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (4), William Nylander (8)1–2
- P21:36Jake DeBrusk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (5), Charlie Coyle (6)0–2
- P118:51Pavel Zacha Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Carlo (3), Mason Lohrei (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:51Pavel Zacha Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Carlo (3), Mason Lohrei (1)TOR 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 55% → 72% +16BOS 55% → 72%+16 pts
- P21:36Jake DeBrusk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (5), Charlie Coyle (6)TOR 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 72% → 85% +13BOS 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P26:31Mitchell Marner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (4), William Nylander (8)TOR 1 – 2 BOS · TOR 14% → 27% +14TOR 14% → 27%+14 pts
- P27:34Auston Matthews Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (3), William Lagesson (1)TOR 2 – 2 BOS · TOR 27% → 45% +18TOR 27% → 45%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 62%
- Fair odds
- BOS -129
- TOR +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +19 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.48 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +84 Elo | BOS 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 1.61st of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +1.71st of 31 |
| 8th of 3153.2% | Shot share | 51.4%13th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 94.7%1st of 31 |
| 10th of 313–2 | Road vs home | 4–15th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.