Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Joe VelenoGoals1
- Daniel SprongAssists1
- Joe VelenoPoints1
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals2
- David PastrnakAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:41David Pastrnak Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P311:19David Pastrnak Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P36:40Joe Veleno Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (4)1–2
- P114:36Charlie McAvoy Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none0–2
- P110:33Pavel Zacha Goal (2) Poke, assists: Brad Marchand (4), David Pastrnak (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:33Pavel Zacha Goal (2) Poke, assists: Brad Marchand (4), David Pastrnak (5)DET 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 55% → 71% +15BOS 55% → 71%+15 pts
- P114:36Charlie McAvoy Goal (1) Backhand, assists: noneDET 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 71% → 83% +12BOS 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P36:40Joe Veleno Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (4)DET 1 – 2 BOS · DET 5% → 20% +15DET 5% → 20%+15 pts
- P311:19David Pastrnak Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 85% → 98% +13BOS 85% → 98%+13 pts
- P317:41David Pastrnak Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 1 – 4 BOS · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 60%
- Fair odds
- BOS -127
- DET +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +16 | DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.41 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +70 Elo | BOS 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 314.4 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 1.61st of 31 |
| 5th of 31+1.4 | Margin | +1.64th of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.7% | Shot share | 52.2%13th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 94.6%1st of 31 |
| 9th of 312–1 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.