Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Aleksander BarkovGoals1
- Aleksander BarkovAssists1
- Aleksander BarkovPoints2
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- Pavel ZachaAssists1
- Pavel ZachaPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:36Pavel Zacha Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P37:20Charlie McAvoy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (6), Pavel Zacha (3)2–2
- P23:38Brad Marchand Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (3), Charlie Coyle (5)2–1
- P115:08Sam Reinhart Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (6)2–0
- P16:13Aleksander Barkov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (3), Niko Mikkola (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:13Aleksander Barkov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (3), Niko Mikkola (2)FLA 1 – 0 BOS · FLA 44% → 60% +15FLA 44% → 60%+15 pts
- P115:08Sam Reinhart Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (6)FLA 2 – 0 BOS · FLA 61% → 76% +15FLA 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P23:38Brad Marchand Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (3), Charlie Coyle (5)FLA 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 21% → 36% +16BOS 21% → 36%+16 pts
- P37:20Charlie McAvoy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (6), Pavel Zacha (3)FLA 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 23% → 53% +29BOS 23% → 53%+29 pts
- OT3:36Pavel Zacha Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 51% → >99% +48BOS 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 60%
- Fair odds
- BOS -127
- FLA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +12 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +70 Elo | BOS 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.316th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 1.51st of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | +1.81st of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.8% | Shot share | 52.7%10th of 31 |
| 11th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 94.7%1st of 31 |
| 17th of 311–2 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.