Seattle Kraken at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals1
- Will BorgenAssists2
- Will BorgenPoints2
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals1
- Dmitry KulikovAssists2
- Dmitry KulikovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:08Nick Cousins Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Josh Mahura (3), Dmitry Kulikov (5)2–3
- P29:04Matthew Tkachuk Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (4), Niko Mikkola (1)2–2
- P28:53Gustav Forsling Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (2), Carter Verhaeghe (1)2–1
- P27:34Eeli Tolvanen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jaden Schwartz (2), Will Borgen (4)2–0
- P17:58Jared McCann Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Yanni Gourde (1), Will Borgen (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:58Jared McCann Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Yanni Gourde (1), Will Borgen (3)SEA 1 – 0 FLA · SEA 45% → 61% +15SEA 45% → 61%+15 pts
- P27:34Eeli Tolvanen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jaden Schwartz (2), Will Borgen (4)SEA 2 – 0 FLA · SEA 65% → 81% +16SEA 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P28:53Gustav Forsling Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (2), Carter Verhaeghe (1)SEA 2 – 1 FLA · FLA 18% → 34% +16FLA 18% → 34%+16 pts
- P29:04Matthew Tkachuk Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (4), Niko Mikkola (1)SEA 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 34% → 54% +20FLA 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P314:08Nick Cousins Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Josh Mahura (3), Dmitry Kulikov (5)SEA 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 52% → 89% +37FLA 52% → 89%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 56%
- Fair odds
- FLA -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −6 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +44 Elo | FLA 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.3 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−1.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.4% | Shot share | 52.8%8th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 91.0%13th of 31 |
| 26th of 311–4 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.