Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Jaden SchwartzAssists2
- Jared McCannPoints2
Lightning- Tanner JeannotGoals1
- Tanner JeannotAssists1
- Tanner JeannotPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:53Jared McCann Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (7), Oliver Bjorkstrand (6)4–3
- P314:32Brandon Hagel Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (3), Alex Barré-Boulet (2)3–3
- P23:40Alex Barré-Boulet Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (4), Tanner Jeannot (3)3–2
- P115:52Kailer Yamamoto Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (4), Eeli Tolvanen (3)3–1
- P113:37Tanner Jeannot Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Haydn Fleury (1), Darren Raddysh (5)2–1
- P113:08Yanni Gourde Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (2), Jared McCann (2)2–0
- P112:08Brian Dumoulin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Schultz (1), Jaden Schwartz (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:08Brian Dumoulin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Schultz (1), Jaden Schwartz (3)SEA 1 – 0 TB · SEA 44% → 61% +16SEA 44% → 61%+16 pts
- P115:52Kailer Yamamoto Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (4), Eeli Tolvanen (3)SEA 3 – 1 TB · SEA 61% → 76% +15SEA 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P23:40Alex Barré-Boulet Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (4), Tanner Jeannot (3)SEA 3 – 2 TB · TB 21% → 36% +16TB 21% → 36%+16 pts
- P314:32Brandon Hagel Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (3), Alex Barré-Boulet (2)SEA 3 – 3 TB · TB 12% → 52% +40TB 12% → 52%+40 pts
- OT2:53Jared McCann Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (7), Oliver Bjorkstrand (6)SEA 4 – 3 TB · SEA 49% → 97% +48SEA 49% → 97%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Fair odds
- TB -128
- SEA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +12 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +76 Elo | TB 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.2 | Goals scored | 3.68th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−1.2 | Margin | +0.68th of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.1% | Shot share | 45.2%27th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 92.0%7th of 31 |
| 29th of 311–5 | Road vs home | 4–14th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.