Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Steven StamkosAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints2
Blue Jackets- Boone JennerGoals1
- Boone JennerAssists1
- Boone JennerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:49Johnny Gaudreau Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (8), Boone Jenner (2)2–4
- P39:24Erik Gudbranson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Emil Bemstrom (1), Adam Fantilli (4)2–3
- P36:41Boone Jenner Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (5), Damon Severson (3)2–2
- P24:42Conor Sheary Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (6), Erik Cernak (1)2–1
- P22:53Steven Stamkos Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P16:29Kirill Marchenko Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (2), Cole Sillinger (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:29Kirill Marchenko Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (2), Cole Sillinger (4)TB 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 69% +15CBJ 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P22:53Steven Stamkos Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneTB 1 – 1 CBJ · TB 29% → 46% +17TB 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P24:42Conor Sheary Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (6), Erik Cernak (1)TB 2 – 1 CBJ · TB 47% → 65% +19TB 47% → 65%+19 pts
- P36:41Boone Jenner Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (5), Damon Severson (3)TB 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 24% → 52% +29CBJ 24% → 52%+29 pts
- P39:24Erik Gudbranson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Emil Bemstrom (1), Adam Fantilli (4)TB 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 52% → 82% +30CBJ 52% → 82%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 53%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -120
- TB +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.9 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −13 | TB: Matt Tomkins: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +18 Elo | CBJ 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.625th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.826th of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.3% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.8% | Save percentage | 90.8%16th of 31 |
| 30th of 310–3 | Road vs home | 2–422nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.