New York Islanders at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Matt MartinGoals1
- Casey CizikasAssists1
- Matt MartinPoints1
Blue JacketsScoring summary
- P316:39Matt Martin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (2)2–0
- P115:45Kyle Palmieri Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (3), Sebastian Aho (1)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:45Kyle Palmieri Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (3), Sebastian Aho (1)NYI 1 – 0 CBJ · NYI 46% → 62% +17NYI 46% → 62%+17 pts
- P316:39Matt Martin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (2)NYI 2 – 0 CBJ · NYI 93% → >99% +6NYI 93% → >99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 56%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -123
- NYI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +8 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CBJ: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +41 Elo | CBJ 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 31 |
| 25th of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.422nd of 31 |
| 28th of 3144.6% | Shot share | 51.1%16th of 31 |
| 12th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 90.7%18th of 31 |
| 28th of 310–1 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.