Columbus Blue Jackets at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Sean KuralyGoals1
- Mathieu OlivierAssists1
- Sean KuralyPoints1
Stars- Evgenii DadonovGoals1
- Jamie BennAssists2
- Evgenii DadonovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:10Sean Kuraly Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ivan Provorov (7), Mathieu Olivier (2)3–5
- P316:21Wyatt Johnston Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (1), Jamie Benn (4)2–5
- P312:39Evgenii Dadonov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (4), Jamie Benn (3)2–4
- P32:49Matt Duchene Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Suter (3), Mason Marchment (1)2–3
- P25:52Roope Hintz Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jason Robertson (5), Nils Lundkvist (1)2–2
- P113:41Damon Severson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (3), Zach Werenski (4)2–1
- P14:37Dmitri Voronkov Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Cole Sillinger (3), Kent Johnson (2)1–1
- P10:27Thomas Harley Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (4), Roope Hintz (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:27Thomas Harley Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (4), Roope Hintz (3)CBJ 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 56% → 70% +14DAL 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P14:37Dmitri Voronkov Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Cole Sillinger (3), Kent Johnson (2)CBJ 1 – 1 DAL · CBJ 30% → 44% +14CBJ 30% → 44%+14 pts
- P113:41Damon Severson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (3), Zach Werenski (4)CBJ 2 – 1 DAL · CBJ 45% → 61% +16CBJ 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P25:52Roope Hintz Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jason Robertson (5), Nils Lundkvist (1)CBJ 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 36% → 55% +19DAL 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P32:49Matt Duchene Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Suter (3), Mason Marchment (1)CBJ 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 53% → 78% +24DAL 53% → 78%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 61%
- Fair odds
- DAL -128
- CBJ +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +18 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.45 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +76 Elo | DAL 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.56th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 15th of 3151.0% | Shot share | 47.9%23rd of 31 |
| 13th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 93.1%3rd of 31 |
| 12th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 2–17th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.