Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals3
- Nikita KucherovAssists4
- Nikita KucherovPoints5
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals2
- Jake SandersonAssists2
- Brady TkachukPoints3
Scoring summary
- P312:14Drake Batherson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (3), Jake Sanderson (6)6–4
- P311:24Nikita Kucherov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Barré-Boulet (3), Victor Hedman (9)6–3
- P311:08Brady Tkachuk Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (3)5–3
- P39:38Brayden Point Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Steven Stamkos (7), Nikita Kucherov (9)5–2
- P31:17Claude Giroux Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (9), Jacob Bernard-Docker (2)4–2
- P218:15Brayden Point Goal (4) Poke, assists: Nikita Kucherov (8)4–1
- P24:57Michael Eyssimont Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Anthony Cirelli (4)3–1
- P20:32Brayden Point Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (7)2–1
- P117:05Victor Hedman Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (6), Brayden Point (9)1–1
- P112:58Brady Tkachuk Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Mathieu Joseph (5), Jake Sanderson (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:58Brady Tkachuk Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Mathieu Joseph (5), Jake Sanderson (5)TB 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 54% → 70% +16OTT 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P117:05Victor Hedman Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (6), Brayden Point (9)TB 1 – 1 OTT · TB 30% → 46% +16TB 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P20:32Brayden Point Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (7)TB 2 – 1 OTT · TB 46% → 64% +18TB 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P24:57Michael Eyssimont Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Anthony Cirelli (4)TB 3 – 1 OTT · TB 65% → 81% +16TB 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P218:15Brayden Point Goal (4) Poke, assists: Nikita Kucherov (8)TB 4 – 1 OTT · TB 87% → 96% +9TB 87% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 54%
- Fair odds
- OTT -121
- TB +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −3 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +28 Elo | OTT 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.85th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.69th of 31 |
| 27th of 3145.8% | Shot share | 52.2%12th of 31 |
| 10th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 89.9%20th of 31 |
| 30th of 310–4 | Road vs home | 3–313th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–1 OTT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.