Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals2
- JJ PeterkaAssists1
- Alex TuchPoints2
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals3
- Mitch MarnerAssists3
- Mitch MarnerPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:54Alex Tuch Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–4
- P312:48Alex Tuch Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (8), Connor Clifton (2)5–4
- P37:26Auston Matthews Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Mark Giordano (2), Mitchell Marner (9)4–4
- P33:11Jordan Greenway Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (8), JJ Peterka (3)4–3
- P30:17Auston Matthews Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (8)3–3
- P211:56Jeff Skinner Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Johnson (1)3–2
- P211:22Auston Matthews Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (9), Mitchell Marner (7)2–2
- P26:28Tage Thompson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P116:13JJ Peterka Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (6), Victor Olofsson (1)1–1
- P112:05Mitchell Marner Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (4), Morgan Rielly (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:56Jeff Skinner Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Johnson (1)BUF 3 – 2 TOR · BUF 43% → 64% +21BUF 43% → 64%+21 pts
- P30:17Auston Matthews Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (8)BUF 3 – 3 TOR · TOR 31% → 56% +25TOR 31% → 56%+25 pts
- P33:11Jordan Greenway Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (8), JJ Peterka (3)BUF 4 – 3 TOR · BUF 45% → 71% +26BUF 45% → 71%+26 pts
- P37:26Auston Matthews Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Mark Giordano (2), Mitchell Marner (9)BUF 4 – 4 TOR · TOR 25% → 55% +30TOR 25% → 55%+30 pts
- P312:48Alex Tuch Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (8), Connor Clifton (2)BUF 5 – 4 TOR · BUF 47% → 83% +37BUF 47% → 83%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 63%
- Fair odds
- TOR -150
- BUF +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.8 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +11 | BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +90 Elo | TOR 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.0% | Shot share | 52.4%10th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.7%18th of 31 |
| 12th of 312–2 | Road vs home | 2–213th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.