Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals2
- Nick FolignoAssists3
- Connor BedardPoints4
Lightning- Anthony CirelliGoals1
- Anthony CirelliAssists1
- Anthony CirelliPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:50Steven Stamkos Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (5), Brayden Point (12)5–3
- P22:12Corey Perry Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Connor Bedard (4), Nick Foligno (6)5–2
- P119:52Connor Bedard Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Nick Foligno (5), Philipp Kurashev (4)4–2
- P117:38Tyler Johnson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (3), Nick Foligno (4)3–2
- P116:43Kevin Korchinski Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (4), MacKenzie Entwistle (1)2–2
- P112:31Nikita Kucherov Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Jeannot (4), Victor Hedman (14)1–2
- P14:42Connor Bedard Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (3)1–1
- P13:20Anthony Cirelli Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (8), Mikhail Sergachev (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:42Connor Bedard Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (3)CHI 1 – 1 TB · CHI 31% → 45% +14CHI 31% → 45%+14 pts
- P112:31Nikita Kucherov Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Jeannot (4), Victor Hedman (14)CHI 1 – 2 TB · TB 55% → 70% +15TB 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P116:43Kevin Korchinski Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (4), MacKenzie Entwistle (1)CHI 2 – 2 TB · CHI 30% → 46% +16CHI 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P117:38Tyler Johnson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (3), Nick Foligno (4)CHI 3 – 2 TB · CHI 46% → 63% +17CHI 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P119:52Connor Bedard Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Nick Foligno (5), Philipp Kurashev (4)CHI 4 – 2 TB · CHI 63% → 78% +15CHI 63% → 78%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- CHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −3 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +37 Elo | TB 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.85th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.523rd of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 30th of 3142.8% | Shot share | 47.3%24th of 31 |
| 7th of 3192.1% | Save percentage | 90.3%18th of 31 |
| 12th of 313–3 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.