New Jersey Devils at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Curtis LazarGoals1
- John MarinoAssists1
- Curtis LazarPoints1
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Jason DickinsonAssists1
- Taylor HallPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:59Michael McLeod Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P315:14Ryan Donato Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Andreas Athanasiou (4), Jason Dickinson (3)3–2
- P34:35Curtis Lazar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (7)3–1
- P114:41Max Willman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P113:07Dawson Mercer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (2), Dougie Hamilton (4)1–1
- P11:51Taylor Hall Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Johnson (2), Wyatt Kaiser (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:51Taylor Hall Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Johnson (2), Wyatt Kaiser (2)NJ 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 50% → 65% +14CHI 50% → 65%+14 pts
- P113:07Dawson Mercer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (2), Dougie Hamilton (4)NJ 1 – 1 CHI · NJ 34% → 50% +16NJ 34% → 50%+16 pts
- P114:41Max Willman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 2 – 1 CHI · NJ 50% → 66% +16NJ 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P34:35Curtis Lazar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (7)NJ 3 – 1 CHI · NJ 76% → 92% +16NJ 76% → 92%+16 pts
- P315:14Ryan Donato Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Andreas Athanasiou (4), Jason Dickinson (3)NJ 3 – 2 CHI · CHI <1% → 10% +9CHI <1% → 10%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 49%
- Fair odds
- CHI -102
- NJ +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.1 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −1 | NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +4 Elo | NJ 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 314.0 | Goals scored | 2.626th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.322nd of 31 |
| 10th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 42.4%30th of 31 |
| 24th of 3188.8% | Save percentage | 92.0%7th of 31 |
| 5th of 313–1 | Road vs home | 1–224th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.