Florida Panthers at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals1
- Carter VerhaegheAssists2
- Carter VerhaeghePoints2
Blackhawks- Philipp KurashevGoals1
- Philipp KurashevAssists2
- Philipp KurashevPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:50Philipp Kurashev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (3)2–5
- P312:29Matthew Tkachuk Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (3), Josh Mahura (4)2–4
- P36:33Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (2), Aleksander Barkov (7)1–4
- P25:29Connor Bedard Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (2), Jarred Tinordi (1)0–4
- P112:39Taylor Hall Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (2), Tyler Johnson (1)0–3
- P19:21Nikita Zaitsev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (1), Lukas Reichel (1)0–2
- P16:25Nick Foligno Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (5), Corey Perry (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:25Nick Foligno Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (5), Corey Perry (5)FLA 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 54% → 69% +15CHI 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P19:21Nikita Zaitsev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (1), Lukas Reichel (1)FLA 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 69% → 81% +12CHI 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P112:39Taylor Hall Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (2), Tyler Johnson (1)FLA 0 – 3 CHI · CHI 82% → 91% +9CHI 82% → 91%+9 pts
- P25:29Connor Bedard Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (2), Jarred Tinordi (1)FLA 0 – 4 CHI · CHI 94% → 98% +4CHI 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P312:29Matthew Tkachuk Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (3), Josh Mahura (4)FLA 2 – 4 CHI · FLA <1% → 2% +2FLA <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 52%
- Fair odds
- CHI -119
- FLA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | −1 | FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +12 Elo | CHI 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 2.328th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.1 | Margin | −0.826th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.7% | Shot share | 42.9%30th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.9% | Save percentage | 91.6%10th of 31 |
| 16th of 312–3 | Road vs home | 0–228th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.