Florida Panthers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Steven LorentzGoals1
- Dmitry KulikovAssists1
- Steven LorentzPoints1
Red WingsScoring summary
- P318:48Anton Lundell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (7), Dmitry Kulikov (6)2–0
- P219:08Steven Lorentz Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Niko Mikkola (3)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P219:08Steven Lorentz Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Niko Mikkola (3)FLA 1 – 0 DET · FLA 47% → 70% +24FLA 47% → 70%+24 pts
- P318:48Anton Lundell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (7), Dmitry Kulikov (6)FLA 2 – 0 DET · FLA >99% → >99% +1FLA >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Fair odds
- DET -126
- FLA +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +14 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +63 Elo | DET 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.8 | Goals scored | 4.02nd of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.112th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.96th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.5% | Shot share | 49.7%18th of 31 |
| 13th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 91.0%15th of 31 |
| 23rd of 311–3 | Road vs home | 3–211th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.